Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat host DeMar DeRozan and the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday evening. San Antonio enters Wednesday's action as winners of three of the past four games, which has the Spurs back in playoff contention. The Spurs are tied with the Memphis Grizzlies for the eighth spot in the West. Miami's strong play recently has the Heat all the way up to the second spot in the East, and only the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers have a better record than Miami on the year.
Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m ET from the AmericanAirlines Arena. Sportsbooks list the Heat as 5.5-point favorites, while the over-under for total points is 220.5 in the latest Spurs vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Spurs picks and NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned over $2,000 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 12 on a blistering 28-16 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Spurs vs. Heat spread: Miami -5.5
- Spurs vs. Heat over-under: 220.5 points
- Spurs vs. Heat money line: Miami -220, San Antonio +185
- SAS: The Spurs have the third-worst against the spread cover rate in the NBA.
- MIA: No team has covered the spread at home at a higher rate than the Heat.
Why the Heat can cover
The model is well aware that not only has Miami been the NBA's best at defending its home court, boasting a 17-1 record at the AmericanAirlines Arena, but the Heat also match up quite well with the Spurs. San Antonio's primary scoring options are DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge. The two have combined to score 36 percent of San Antonio's points this season, so beating the Spurs starts with slowing them down.
Miami's Adebayo has enjoyed a true breakout season, averaging what would be a career-best 15.9 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 4.5 assists, but what he is known for is his defense. Adebayo boasts the versatility to switch any screen and guard positions one-through-five. Coach Erik Spoelstra has given Adebayo primary assignments ranging from Russell Westbrook to Giannis Antetokounmpo to Joel Embiid. He will be key in slowing down Aldridge, and Miami's offseason acquisition Jimmy Butler will hound the red-hot DeRozan everywhere he goes on Wednesday. Even so, Miami isn't a lock to cover the Heat vs. Spurs spread on Wednesday night.
Why the Spurs can cover
The model has taken into account that the Spurs have played much better as the season has progressed. Their season-long numbers don't look great — a 17-21 record has them ninth in the Western Conference and their -1.0 point differential ranks 16th in the NBA. The majority of that damage came during a brutal eight-game losing streak in November, though. From December on, San Antonio is 10-7 with a +3.1 point differential.
One reason for San Antonio's in-season improvement is the play of DeRozan. After a slow start to the year, the four-time All-Star has averaged 27 points, six assists and five rebounds on 63.4 percent shooting over his past 10 games. If DeRozan can continue to play at that level on Wednesday, the Spurs might surprise Miami, just as they did Milwaukee and Boston last week.
How to make Spurs vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 70 percent of simulations.
So who wins Spurs vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Spurs spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.