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The American Express 2020 odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from proven model that nailed six majors
The American Express 2020 odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from proven model that nailed six majors avatar

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As the winter weather sets in, several of golf's brightest stars will go head-to-head this week in sunny California as The American Express 2020 gets underway on Thursday. The 2020 American Express field will rotate through three courses during the first three rounds, and the famed Stadium Course gets the honor of hosting the fourth and final round on Sunday. The 61st edition of The American Express features Rickie Fowler as the favorite at 11-1 American Express odds 2020, with Paul Casey (20-1), Francesco Molinari (40-1) and Tony Finau (20-1) also in the field.

This week's lineup also includes Phil Mickelson (40-1), who's won this event twice in his career, and the first American Express 2020 tee times are at 11:30 a.m. ET. Before locking in any 2020 American Express picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings, check out the predictions and projected leaderboard from the team at SportsLine.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed two of the last three majors entering the weekend. It predicted Gary Woodland's first career major championship at the U.S. Open even though he wasn't the favorite entering the weekend. The result: Woodland held off a late charge from Brooks Koepka and won by three strokes. The model also called Koepka's historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship, predicting he'd hold his lead in the home stretch. In all, their advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend, and anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now that The American Express field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Sungjae Im, currently ranked ninth in the FedEx Cup standings and one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles this week and doesn't even crack the top five.

Im is off to a blistering start this season, having already racked up two top-10 finishes. However, the 21-year-old has never won a tournament on the PGA Tour. Im finished outside the top 20 last week at the Sony Open, and despite his strong start to the season, he has struggled to find consistency throughout his young career. In fact, Im finished 25th or worse 19 times and missed the cut on nine separate occasions last season.

Im's inconsistent performances can be directly attributed to his inability to find the fairway off the tee. The South Korean currently ranks outside the top 100 in driving accuracy percentage (63.66), which doesn't bode well for his chances to finish on top of the American Express leaderboard this week. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in this loaded field.

Another surprise: Brendon Todd, a 50-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

The 34-year-old got off to an extremely slow start to the 2019-20 PGA Tour season, missing the cut in his first four starts. However, Todd has quickly turned his game around and been on a roll since November. In fact, the University of Georgia product has already secured two victories this season, finishing on top of the leaderboard at the Bermuda Championship and the Mayakoba Golf Classic.

Plus, the three-time PGA Tour champion enters this week's event ranked second on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy percentage (70.49) and 23rd in scoring average (69.945), which should put him in contention again this week at The American Express 2020. Todd's ability to consistently find the fairway off the tee coupled with his low scoring average makes him an intriguing value pick this week in California.

Also, the model says four other golfers with odds of 33-1 or longer will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins The American Express 2020, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard from the model that's nailed six golf majors, and find out.

Rickie Fowler 11-1
Sungjae Im 18-1
Paul Casey 20-1
Tony Finau 20-1
Charles Howell III 25-1
Kevin Kisner 25-1
Brian Harman 28-1
Byeong Hun An 33-1
Scottie Scheffler 33-1
Vaughn Taylor 33-1
Cameron Champ 40-1
Billy Horschel 40-1
Russell Knox 40-1
Jason Kokrak 40-1
Phil Mickelson 40-1
Francesco Molinari 40-1
Alexander Noren 40-1
J.T. Poston 40-1
Matthew Wolff 40-1
Zach Johnson 45-1
Abraham Ancer 50-1
Daniel Berger 50-1
Ryan Moore 50-1
Rory Sabbatini 50-1
Nick Taylor 50-1
Brendon Todd 50-1

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